{
  "schema_version": "1.0.0",
  "id": "CR-F-0005",
  "record_type": "finding",
  "title": "The measured Layer-Local Hot Bank hit rate leaves a narrower but nonempty idealized Vault-Scratch envelope",
  "claim": "Under the frozen CR-E-0006 architectural assumptions, a 64-module Vault using the CR-F-0004 held-out hit fraction of 14.6688% plus an eight-module Scratch tier with an assumed 6.52% hit fraction passes every modeled system gate at 121 of 196 density-grid points and all 110 write-energy-grid points. At equal Vault and Scratch densities the idealized weight-bit area boundary is 9.0597 bit/um2, but the selected physical-device presets still have five required measurements recorded as UNKNOWN; this is an architectural break-even result, not evidence that a physical CrystalRAM device can implement it.",
  "evidence_class": "analytical_derivation",
  "status": "reported",
  "confidence": {
    "score": 0.76,
    "level": "medium",
    "rationale": "The equations, exact grids, unit-bearing outputs, deterministic artifacts, and 306-point software cross-check are internally consistent and tested. Confidence is limited because the cross-check shares equations with the simulator, the Scratch hit fraction and system costs are assumptions, the parameter grid is not a coupled device model, and critical material measurements remain unknown."
  },
  "created_at": "2026-08-10T04:37:09Z",
  "updated_at": "2026-08-10T04:37:09Z",
  "contributors": [
    {
      "id": "deepseek-crystalram-first-principles-2026-08-09",
      "kind": "ai",
      "role": "architecture_scientist",
      "provider": "DeepSeek",
      "model": "DeepSeek V4 Pro via OpenCode 1.18.15",
      "organization": null,
      "sector": "cross-provider supervised pilot",
      "orcid": null,
      "disclosures": [
        "DeepSeek drafted the first-principles analysis under a file-scoped supervised lease and did not execute or approve its own result.",
        "The initial draft contained runtime, simulator-adapter, report-provenance, and sensitivity-comparison defects that the coordinator identified before a finding was recorded.",
        "DeepSeek and the OpenAI coordinator share Dana as human steward, so this record is not an independent reproduction or independent approval."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "openai-codex-crystalram-coordinator-2026-08-09",
      "kind": "ai",
      "role": "coordinator",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "model": "Codex (GPT-5 family; exact deployment identifier unavailable to runtime)",
      "organization": null,
      "sector": "cross-provider independent research",
      "orcid": null,
      "disclosures": [
        "The coordinator repaired the canonical simulator adapter, normalized the sensitivity comparison, added tests, executed the analysis, and verified deterministic artifacts.",
        "Coordinator review establishes software consistency only and does not independently validate the shared architectural assumptions or physical feasibility."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "method": {
    "summary": "Derive the two-tier area, routed-weight service latency, energy, and programming-bandwidth gates from OLMoE expert-module geometry independently of break_even.py. Evaluate the preregistered 196-point density grid and 110-point energy grid using the CR-F-0004 Vault hit fraction, a separately labeled Scratch design assumption, and frozen system assumptions. Compare all 306 points against break_even.py with absolute tolerance 1e-12 and relative tolerance 1e-9, preserve null material fields as UNKNOWN, and compare the measured Vault hit fraction with the legacy assumed 40% value at the reference operating point.",
    "code_revision": "202214ee49bda2ca1ad69a958295357a5a50a44e",
    "configuration": "research/experiments/CR-E-0006.json",
    "data": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_manifest.json",
    "random_seed": null,
    "reproduce": [
      "python3 CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/tools/cr_e_0006_first_principles.py --run-at 2026-08-10T04:29:46Z",
      "python3 -m unittest CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/tests/test_cr_e_0006_first_principles.py -v",
      "python3 CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/tests/test_sim.py",
      "python3 tools/research_ledger.py validate",
      "python3 -m unittest discover -s tests -p 'test_*.py'"
    ]
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "metric": "equal_density_idealized_area_break_even",
      "value": 9.05969664,
      "unit": "bit/um2",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Equal effective Vault and Scratch densities required for 64 plus 8 OLMoE modules to fit within 400 mm2; weight bits only"
    },
    {
      "metric": "density_grid_points_passing_all_system_gates",
      "value": 121,
      "unit": "points_of_196",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Exact preregistered density grid at fixed Vault write energy 10 pJ/bit and Scratch write energy 0.143 pJ/bit"
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_grid_points_passing_all_system_gates",
      "value": 110,
      "unit": "points_of_110",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Exact preregistered write-energy grid at 100 bit/um2 for both tiers under assumed rewrite rates and zero fixed conversion energy"
    },
    {
      "metric": "reference_total_idealized_area",
      "value": 36.23878656,
      "unit": "mm2",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Reference point with both tier densities set to 100 bit/um2; excludes addressing, conversion, control, redundancy, routing, and packaging"
    },
    {
      "metric": "reference_routed_weight_service_lower_bound",
      "value": 0.028948841991603663,
      "unit": "ms/token",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Modeled hybrid routed-weight service versus 0.03660483490909091 ms/token HBM-only baseline; not full token latency"
    },
    {
      "metric": "reference_routed_weight_energy",
      "value": 26.069415820787707,
      "unit": "mJ/token",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Modeled hybrid routed-weight energy versus 32.21225472 mJ/token HBM-only baseline under configured read, write, rewrite, and conversion assumptions"
    },
    {
      "metric": "latency_margin_reduction_from_legacy_assumed_40_percent_vault_hit",
      "value": 54.77438293177323,
      "unit": "%",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Reference-point margin reduction when the legacy 40% design assumption is replaced by the CR-F-0004 14.6688% empirical hit fraction"
    },
    {
      "metric": "energy_margin_reduction_from_legacy_assumed_40_percent_vault_hit",
      "value": 54.452345358991835,
      "unit": "%",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "Reference-point margin reduction when the legacy 40% design assumption is replaced by the CR-F-0004 14.6688% empirical hit fraction"
    },
    {
      "metric": "first_principles_points_matching_simulator",
      "value": 306,
      "unit": "points_of_306",
      "uncertainty": {
        "method": "numeric_software_cross_check",
        "absolute_tolerance": 1e-12,
        "relative_tolerance": 1e-9
      },
      "scope": "Area, latency, energy, and overall verdict at every exact-grid point; shared-assumption cross-check, not independent reproduction"
    },
    {
      "metric": "required_device_fields_remaining_unknown",
      "value": 5,
      "unit": "fields",
      "uncertainty": null,
      "scope": "GSSe effective density, write energy, and measured retention; Ce:YIG-CoFeB effective density and insertion loss"
    }
  ],
  "assumptions": [
    "The CR-F-0004 Vault hit fraction of 0.14668782552083334 is applied to the frozen OLMoE routed-weight geometry.",
    "The Scratch tier has eight modules and a 0.0652 hit fraction; both are design assumptions, not CR-F-0004 measurements.",
    "Vault and Scratch read energy are each assumed to be 0.5 pJ/bit; HBM read energy is assumed to be 5.0 pJ/bit.",
    "Vault and Scratch rewrite rates are assumed to be 0.1 and 1000 tier rewrites per million served tokens, respectively.",
    "Effective optical bandwidth is assumed to be 100 TB/s, conversion overhead 100 ns, and fixed conversion energy zero.",
    "Density, write energy, rewrite rate, bandwidth, retention, loss, and endurance are treated as independently selectable dimensions even though physical devices couple them."
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "The software cross-check reuses the same high-level equations encoded by break_even.py and is not an independent scientific reproduction.",
    "The latency result is a routed-weight service lower bound, not complete token latency; compute, networking, router, ADC/DAC, laser, detector, control, thermal, and calibration costs are excluded.",
    "The area result counts idealized resident weight bits only and excludes addressing, conversion, control, redundancy, waveguides, routing, and packaging.",
    "All 110 energy-grid points pass only under the configured rewrite rates, read energies, bandwidths, and zero fixed conversion-energy assumption; this does not show that a real device can reach any tested write energy.",
    "The CR-F-0004 Vault hit fraction comes from one OLMoE checkpoint and a 48-prompt authored suite, not production traffic or another architecture.",
    "The selected material presets do not close the physical feasibility question because five required device measurements remain UNKNOWN.",
    "No independent reproduction, external device-physics review, or independent code review has promoted this reported finding."
  ],
  "evidence": [
    {
      "kind": "configuration",
      "uri": "research/experiments/CR-E-0006.json",
      "sha256": "2a6ca205d4afb71c6a688ba77540030c45cd906fd03d729ef7b3d9bc65d20390",
      "title": "Preregistered Vault-Scratch first-principles experiment",
      "supports": "The frozen question, exact grids, success and failure gates, OLMoE geometry, CR-F-0004 hit fraction, assumptions, and evidence boundaries.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_manifest.json",
      "sha256": "9eba8d91028f1880dd353f49a4fd41e1a9bf5d7c5fa4f405916a51af3d9d118f",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 deterministic artifact manifest",
      "supports": "The exact run timestamp, grids, assumptions, hashes, result counts, sensitivity comparison, limitations, and UNKNOWN fields.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_report.md",
      "sha256": "66fd66e6ed02d5320db4469c42cba729522d9a10dee31bff2ad231303216b3a0",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 plain-language analytical report",
      "supports": "The architecture, pass and fail counts, reference margins, 40% comparison, sensitivity ranking, assumptions, limitations, and reproduction command.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_density_sweep.csv",
      "sha256": "fd5b8ad4d3c4457a61ce3d022f59ff116a442aa85ff7a8f59a06aaa9feb3f901",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 exact density sweep",
      "supports": "All 196 density-grid area, latency, energy, and overall verdicts.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_energy_sweep.csv",
      "sha256": "44c145c6e112043bb861bb275251d843c05a76d7d66556c9d1cdb038075d4d82",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 exact energy sweep",
      "supports": "All 110 write-energy-grid area, latency, energy, and overall verdicts.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_cross_check.csv",
      "sha256": "0ec4dfac75ab98cc69525ad09512b7c8f4fc4ebe555200c55bf2d65ceb49e705",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 306-point simulator cross-check",
      "supports": "Agreement of independently written first-principles code with break_even.py for all modeled scalars and verdicts within preregistered tolerances.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "artifact",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/results/cr_e_0006_device_evidence.csv",
      "sha256": "3c94e8cfb84cb6e6776392dc139207b1c306ef1de0e3f1315bbfc910cafea25e",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 device-evidence gates",
      "supports": "The pass, fail, adapt, and UNKNOWN status of each GSSe and Ce:YIG-CoFeB evidence field without optimistic substitution.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "test",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/tests/test_cr_e_0006_first_principles.py",
      "sha256": "d8cb3d1bf19fa69cd824fecb8450ffc57b9ed7d426a7371e4bd5d0076e9891f1",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 regression tests",
      "supports": "Frozen OLMoE geometry, grid cardinality, 306-point matching, explicit margin narrowing, UNKNOWN preservation, report rendering, and timestamp validation.",
      "accessed_at": null
    },
    {
      "kind": "source",
      "uri": "CrystalRAM-Simulator-v0/tools/cr_e_0006_first_principles.py",
      "sha256": "30c72b87e7a50a78c7c5a8a164e4dddf06767917334084e662dcc38756a9bf82",
      "title": "CR-E-0006 first-principles implementation",
      "supports": "The explicit equations, exact grids, simulator adapter, sensitivity comparison, deterministic artifacts, and evidence boundaries.",
      "accessed_at": null
    }
  ],
  "relationships": [
    {
      "type": "derived_from",
      "target_id": "CR-E-0006",
      "note": "This finding reports the preregistered analytical experiment and preserves its positive, negative, and UNKNOWN results."
    },
    {
      "type": "derived_from",
      "target_id": "CR-F-0004",
      "note": "The Vault hit fraction is the held-out OLMoE expert-identity locality result from CR-F-0004; every other tier and physical assumption remains separately labeled."
    }
  ],
  "review_requirements": {
    "independent_reproductions": 1,
    "required_review_types": [
      "reproduction",
      "code",
      "adversarial",
      "device_physics"
    ]
  }
}